A recent study by Harvard Business School's Professor Andy Wu and doctoral candidate Aticus Peterson reveals a counterintuitive trend: more-experienced entrepreneurs often face bigger challenges with deadlines than their less-experienced counterparts. Let's delve into the reasons behind this surprising phenomenon.
The Study: Tracking Kickstarter Entrepreneurs 📊
The study focused on 314 entrepreneurs who launched multiple technology hardware products on Kickstarter. Surprisingly, it found that with each additional project, these founders tended to overshoot their deadlines even more.
Key Finding: Experience Leads to Bigger Deadline Problems ⏰
Contrary to common belief, experience doesn't always translate to better time management. In fact, the study found that more-experienced entrepreneurs faced average delays of an additional six weeks for each subsequent project.
Exploring the Why: The Complexity Factor 🌐
The main culprit seems to be the increasing complexity of projects. As entrepreneurs gain experience, they get better at understanding project complexity but also add new features, which in turn increases the complexity unpredictably.
Underestimating the Impact of New Features 🔍
A common mistake among experienced entrepreneurs is underestimating how a single new feature can create a cascade of changes, leading to significant delays.
The Challenge of Accurate Forecasting 📈
Despite adding time buffers, entrepreneurs often fail to predict the geometric increase in complexity their projects will experience. This results in timelines that are consistently underestimated.
Tech Hardware Projects: A Prime Example 🖥️
The study specifically looked at technology hardware projects, known for their high complexity. This choice highlights the challenges of forecasting in an environment where product development is inherently intricate.
Implications for Entrepreneurs and Investors 💡
Understanding the nature of complexity and its impact on project timelines is crucial for both entrepreneurs and investors. This knowledge can lead to better planning and reduced risks of delays.
Strategies to Mitigate Deadline Risks 🛠️
Entrepreneurs can benefit from incremental stress testing and agile methodologies to anticipate problems early on. Recognizing the potential for unknown unknowns is key to setting more realistic timelines.
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